Is hurricane season over? Probably

Posted on November 15, 2011 by James Proctor

Is the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season over? Officially, no, as it ends on Nov. 30, in about two weeks.

Unofficially, probably so, at least as far as Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, is concerned.

“I did tell my wife, Ann, this past weekend that we are safe in raiding the hurricane supplies we have stored up,” said Feltgen, who in the past has made it a point to warn residents not to break into their supplies too early.

Feltgen said it’s unlikely any more storms will form this year because tropical waters have cooled, cold fronts are descending across the United States regularly and there’s “wind shear all over the place.”

“There’s absolutely nothing going on in the tropics,” he said, adding, “I hope I am not jinxing anything, as the season does not end for two weeks yet.”

Among his storm supplies: canned spam – “My wife’s idea, not mine” -  tuna, fruit cups, chili, beef stew and soups; four boxes of protein bars; two boxes of crackers; two boxes of Pop Tarts; two 12-packs of soda and peanut butter and jelly.

Most of those supplies will be donated to charity, Feltgen said.

If no other storms form, the season would end with 18 named storms, including six hurricanes. That would tie 2011 with 1969 as the sixth busiest season on record.

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Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Storm – Lee – 2pm update

Posted on September 2, 2011 by James Proctor

As of 2pm Tropical Depression 13 had sustained winds of 40mph causing the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the Depression to Tropical Storm Lee. Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect for LA and MS Gulf Coasts. Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about newly upgraded Tropical Storm Lee:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
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Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression 13 – 8am update

Posted on September 2, 2011 by James Proctor

Here is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about Tropical Depression 13 as of 5am this morning:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1
MPH...2 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

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What is a Tropical Depression?

Posted on September 2, 2011 by James Proctor

Q: what does it mean when the weather people say a topical depression has formed?

A: A Tropical Depression is a Area of disturbed weather, with associated Low pressure center, that normally comes from the deep tropics (A lot come from Africa in the form of Tropical Waves). A depression contains a Low Level Circulation with organized Thunderstorm Activity over the Low Level Circulation.  Tropical Depressions contain warm cores which means that the center of low pressure is warmer then the surrounding Thunderstorm activity.

If your local Meteorologist (Weather Forecaster) says that a Tropical Depression formed then it means that an area of low pressure formed with a low level circulation and enough organized Thunderstorm activity is present to upgrade the area to a depression.

Q: What can I expect from a Tropical Depression?

A: Tropical Depression have winds under 40mph so winds aren’t a real concern with Depressions. Generally the biggest threat from a Depression is the Rainfall which can lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

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Atlantic – Invest94L – 60% chance of Development

Posted on September 2, 2011 by James Proctor

As of the 2am update by the National Hurricane Center Invest94L now has a 60% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Here is what the NHC has to say about it:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

I will have the very latest on this Invest as we get more information!

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Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression 13 – 2am Update

Posted on September 2, 2011 by James Proctor

Here is the 2am update and forecast track for Tropical Depression 13:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression 13 – Recon

Posted on September 2, 2011 by James Proctor

Well tonight we have a Recon Mission into tropical Depression 14. Here is the first observation from them:

 

000
URNT15 KNHC 291405
AF306 WXWXA 110829132437306    HDOB 04 20110829
135530 3158N 08327W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135600 3158N 08330W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 325012 013 /// /// 05
135630 3157N 08333W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135700 3156N 08336W 3926 07691 0374 -190 //// 326013 014 /// /// 05
135730 3155N 08339W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 327015 015 /// /// 05
135800 3155N 08342W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 323014 014 /// /// 05
135830 3154N 08345W 3926 07689 0372 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135900 3153N 08348W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 323013 014 /// /// 05
135930 3152N 08351W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 322013 013 /// /// 05
140000 3152N 08354W 3926 07689 0373 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140030 3151N 08357W 3926 07687 0373 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140100 3150N 08400W 3926 07690 0373 -190 //// 320012 013 /// /// 05
140130 3149N 08403W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
140200 3148N 08405W 3926 07692 0376 -190 //// 319014 015 /// /// 05
140230 3148N 08408W 3926 07693 0377 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140300 3147N 08411W 3927 07692 0377 -190 //// 319013 014 /// /// 05
140330 3146N 08414W 3926 07692 0377 -190 //// 320013 013 /// /// 05
140400 3145N 08417W 3926 07689 0376 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140430 3144N 08420W 3926 07688 0375 -190 //// 320013 014 /// /// 05
140500 3144N 08423W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
$$
;

I will have more as more information comes through.
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Gulf of Mexico Threat – Invest93L – August 31st 2011

Posted on August 31, 2011 by James Proctor

The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather located in the southern Gulf of Mexico. If this system were to develop it would pose a threat some where along the Gulf Coast of the U.S.A or Mexico. Stay tuned for the very latest on this developing situation!

 

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Katia remains a Tropical Storm…

Posted on August 31, 2011 by James Proctor

As of 5pm the National Hurricane Center held Katia as a Tropical Storm. However Katia is just about a Hurricane. There is a very good chance that Katia will gain Hurricane Strength by 11pm tonight.

Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about Katia this afternoon:

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011

KATIA IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STATUS. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT PROMINENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE CENTER. THE STORM ALSO
HAS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT
55 KT…BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODESTLY WARM WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…SO CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR…AND INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION…LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS…SUCH AS THE GFS…SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE OF KATIA WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND
DISPLACE THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IF THAT
OCCURS…KATIA WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 4 OR 5.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. AS KATIA NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 14.6N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.1N 44.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.8N 47.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.7N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 20.0N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 22.0N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Here is the latest Forecast Track:

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Katia Strengthening over the eastern Atlantic…

Posted on August 30, 2011 by James Proctor

The trend all afternoon for Katia is that she is strengthening at a decent rate. The 18z best track is now showing that Katia has winds reaching 50kts with the pressure down to 997mb. At this rate Katia could be nearing Hurricane Strength by later tonight.

18z Best Track:

AL, 12, 2011083018, , BEST, 0, 125N, 346W, 50, 997, TS

 

Ships RI probability Scale shows a 43% chance that Irene could go through a Period of 26kt RI.

Ships RI Output:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    26% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    18% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

All data available points to Katia entering or being in an area conducive to Strengthening. When looking at the data we must look at the following factors:

  • Shear over and ahead of the system
  • Sea surface Temps.
  • Temps of the water at depth
  • overall environment around the system (Is there dry air present or is the environment moist).

Let’s take a look at each of these elements now!

Shear – Developing Tropical Storms need to produce strong convection over the area of low pressure in order to keep on lowering the pressure and strengthen the low level circulation. If the winds aloft over the tropical storm are too strong then those developing thunderstorms will get blown off and won’t be able to build over the Low Level Circulation. Shear of under 20kts is generally acceptable for a Tropical system to strengthen or maintain it’s intensity. Anything above that can be disruptive to the circulation. Any amount under 10kts is normally conducive for Rapid Strengthen providing the other elements are in place.

Current Shear analysis shows around 10kts of shear right over Katia. The general tendency for shear during the last 24 hours is decreasing Shear in Katia’s path.

 

 

Sea Surface temps – The temperature of the Ocean is another vital component that allows Tropical systems to strengthen. Hurricanes must have sea surface temps. of greater then 82 degrees Fahrenheit for them to develop the deep convection.

Based on this map SSTs are in the 83 to 85 degree range and warmer along the forecast track.

 

Temps of the water at depth – Not only do Hurricanes need warm Ocean water at the surface but they need warm water at depth. The Deeper the water gets the cooler it gets. As the winds blow the water it mixes the cooler water from deep below the surface and cools off the surface water. If the water is warm below the surface then there is more heat energy for the Hurricane to tap into allowing it to strengthen more.

 

As you can see from this map Katia will be moving over pockets of higher heat content along her path. Even in the areas of lower heat content that she is currently in there is more then enough heat content for Katia to strengthen into a powerful Hurricane.

 

Overall Environment – Katia’s over all Environment looks to be fairly moist. There is some dry air to her northwest but over all it looks pretty ripe for further strengthening. Over all I believe we will be looking at a intense Hurricane with in the next 5 days.

Where will Katia go is still the main question we need to be watching and figuring out. All data points to Katia Strengthening but her future track will decide how she is remembered!

 

I will have more on Katia as we get new information!

Join us in discussing Katia in our Community Forum!

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