The Weather Watch

Weekly Live Podcast

James Proctor — Sun, 20 May 2012 04:28:38 +0000

I just wanted to let every one know that new for the 2012 Hurricane Season I will be doing Live Weekly Podcasts. These podcasts are your chance to get the latest information on a week by week basis on what’s going on in the tropics. You guys will be able to listen in live each week and ask me questions that I’ll be able to get on the air and answer them to the best of my Ability.

During a landfall of a Tropical System I will be streaming live as much as possible in order to get the information needed out to those in the path of these storms.

You can listen to our live Podcasts from the radio link on this site or directly from our UStream Channel – http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-hurricane-watch

2012 – Invest 93L – 50% chance

James Proctor — Sat, 19 May 2012 19:35:14 +0000

Today all eyes are focused on the Atlantic just off the US SouthEast coast. A Low level non-tropical system was declared as Invest 93L as it began to acquire Tropical Characteristic as it moved south or south-westward. The NHC at this time is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next 48 hours. We are still a couple weeks away from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season but with already 3 declared Invest could this be a sign of what’s to come during this 2012 Hurricane Season?

Here is what the NHC has to say about Invest 93L:

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.  ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Winter weather’s deadly toll across Europe

James Proctor — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 02:59:04 +0000

IT was so waterlogged in Bulgaria today that a dam broke and submerged an entire village under 2.5m of freezing water.

Switzerland recorded year- low temperatures that dropped to -35.1 Celsius and historic electricity consumption was predicted for France as residents there battled the deep cold.

As the freezing temperatures, heavy rains and snow encased the European continent, only some residents of the Netherlands, suffering its coldest spell in 15 years, appeared enthused by the ferocious winter weather.

There, residents were reported sharpening their skates in hopes that a legendary long-distance race on frozen canals could be held for the first time in 15 years, although the ice was still deemed too thin.

But elsewhere the weather spelled disaster, with the death toll edging past 360, according to AFP.

In Bulgaria, rivers swollen with snow and torrential icy rains smashed through a dam in the southeastern village of Biser, drowning four elderly people in their homes. Another four died when their cars were swept from bridges into the raging waters.

“People are in panic,” regional mayor Mihail Liskov said on national radio, according to AFP. “Ninety per cent of the village is under water.”

In Poland, where temperatures fell to -24C in northeastern parts of the country, nine people died in the past 24 hours, Sky News reported.

Monika Golebiewska, a Warsaw police officer, said, “new (fatal) cases are reported to us daily. Just today we got calls telling us about two new ones, one of someone who was living in a tent and another of someone in an abandoned train station”.

In Italy, authorities continued to clean up after a rare snowstorm blanketed Rome over the weekend and electrical crews struggled to restore power to some 60,000 homes in the Tuscan region.

The canals of Venice were reported frozen over, as were parts of the Black Sea.

After cancelling half its flights yesterday, operators of London’s Heathrow Airport, the world’s busiest passenger hub, said its schedule was almost back to normal.

In France, 39 of the country’s 101 regions were on alert for deep cold as a new record for electricity consumption was predicted.

In the Dalmatian region of Croatia, where more than 100 villages have been cut off by snow, Sky News reported a woman gave birth at home with the help of a neighbour while a midwife from a nearby town offered instructions over the phone.

“The baby girl is fine and beautiful and I’ll probably name her Snow White, given the circumstances,” Sky reported the mother said later.

Is hurricane season over? Probably

James Proctor — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 20:44:21 +0000

Is the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season over? Officially, no, as it ends on Nov. 30, in about two weeks.

Unofficially, probably so, at least as far as Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, is concerned.

“I did tell my wife, Ann, this past weekend that we are safe in raiding the hurricane supplies we have stored up,” said Feltgen, who in the past has made it a point to warn residents not to break into their supplies too early.

Feltgen said it’s unlikely any more storms will form this year because tropical waters have cooled, cold fronts are descending across the United States regularly and there’s “wind shear all over the place.”

“There’s absolutely nothing going on in the tropics,” he said, adding, “I hope I am not jinxing anything, as the season does not end for two weeks yet.”

Among his storm supplies: canned spam – “My wife’s idea, not mine” - tuna, fruit cups, chili, beef stew and soups; four boxes of protein bars; two boxes of crackers; two boxes of Pop Tarts; two 12-packs of soda and peanut butter and jelly.

Most of those supplies will be donated to charity, Feltgen said.

If no other storms form, the season would end with 18 named storms, including six hurricanes. That would tie 2011 with 1969 as the sixth busiest season on record.

Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Storm – Lee – 2pm update

James Proctor — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 20:09:28 +0000

As of 2pm Tropical Depression 13 had sustained winds of 40mph causing the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the Depression to Tropical Storm Lee. Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect for LA and MS Gulf Coasts. Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about newly upgraded Tropical Storm Lee:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression 13 – 8am update

James Proctor — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:41:00 +0000

Here is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about Tropical Depression 13 as of 5am this morning:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1
MPH...2 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

What is a Tropical Depression?

James Proctor — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:29:45 +0000

Q: what does it mean when the weather people say a topical depression has formed?

A: A Tropical Depression is a Area of disturbed weather, with associated Low pressure center, that normally comes from the deep tropics (A lot come from Africa in the form of Tropical Waves). A depression contains a Low Level Circulation with organized Thunderstorm Activity over the Low Level Circulation. Tropical Depressions contain warm cores which means that the center of low pressure is warmer then the surrounding Thunderstorm activity.

If your local Meteorologist (Weather Forecaster) says that a Tropical Depression formed then it means that an area of low pressure formed with a low level circulation and enough organized Thunderstorm activity is present to upgrade the area to a depression.

Q: What can I expect from a Tropical Depression?

A: Tropical Depression have winds under 40mph so winds aren’t a real concern with Depressions. Generally the biggest threat from a Depression is the Rainfall which can lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

Atlantic – Invest94L – 60% chance of Development

James Proctor — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 07:03:39 +0000

As of the 2am update by the National Hurricane Center Invest94L now has a 60% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Here is what the NHC has to say about it:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

I will have the very latest on this Invest as we get more information!

Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression 13 – 2am Update

James Proctor — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 05:43:55 +0000

Here is the 2am update and forecast track for Tropical Depression 13:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression 13 – Recon

James Proctor — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 05:11:20 +0000

Well tonight we have a Recon Mission into tropical Depression 14. Here is the first observation from them:

000
URNT15 KNHC 291405
AF306 WXWXA 110829132437306    HDOB 04 20110829
135530 3158N 08327W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135600 3158N 08330W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 325012 013 /// /// 05
135630 3157N 08333W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135700 3156N 08336W 3926 07691 0374 -190 //// 326013 014 /// /// 05
135730 3155N 08339W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 327015 015 /// /// 05
135800 3155N 08342W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 323014 014 /// /// 05
135830 3154N 08345W 3926 07689 0372 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135900 3153N 08348W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 323013 014 /// /// 05
135930 3152N 08351W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 322013 013 /// /// 05
140000 3152N 08354W 3926 07689 0373 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140030 3151N 08357W 3926 07687 0373 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140100 3150N 08400W 3926 07690 0373 -190 //// 320012 013 /// /// 05
140130 3149N 08403W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
140200 3148N 08405W 3926 07692 0376 -190 //// 319014 015 /// /// 05
140230 3148N 08408W 3926 07693 0377 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140300 3147N 08411W 3927 07692 0377 -190 //// 319013 014 /// /// 05
140330 3146N 08414W 3926 07692 0377 -190 //// 320013 013 /// /// 05
140400 3145N 08417W 3926 07689 0376 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140430 3144N 08420W 3926 07688 0375 -190 //// 320013 014 /// /// 05
140500 3144N 08423W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
$$
;

I will have more as more information comes through.