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	<title>The Weather Watch</title>
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		<title>Winter weather&#8217;s deadly toll across Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/winter-weathers-deadly-toll-europe/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/winter-weathers-deadly-toll-europe/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 02:59:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dam broke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[snow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[IT was so waterlogged in Bulgaria today that a dam broke and submerged an entire village under 2.5m of freezing water. Switzerland recorded year- low temperatures that dropped to -35.1 Celsius and historic electricity consumption was predicted for France as &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/winter-weathers-deadly-toll-europe/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>IT was so waterlogged in Bulgaria today that a dam broke and submerged an entire village under 2.5m of freezing water. </strong></p>
<p>Switzerland recorded year- low temperatures that dropped to -35.1 Celsius and historic electricity consumption was predicted for France as residents there battled the deep cold.</p>
<p>As the freezing temperatures, heavy rains and snow encased the European continent, only some residents of the Netherlands, suffering its coldest spell in 15 years, appeared enthused by the ferocious winter weather.</p>
<p>There, residents were reported sharpening their skates in hopes that a legendary long-distance race on frozen canals could be held for the first time in 15 years, although the ice was still deemed too thin.</p>
<p>But elsewhere the weather spelled disaster, with the death toll edging past 360, according to AFP.</p>
<p>In Bulgaria, rivers swollen with snow and torrential icy rains smashed through a dam in the southeastern village of Biser, drowning four elderly people in their homes. Another four died when their cars were swept from bridges into the raging waters.</p>
<p>&#8220;People are in panic,&#8221; regional mayor Mihail Liskov said on national radio, according to AFP. &#8220;Ninety per cent of the village is under water.&#8221;</p>
<p>In Poland, where temperatures fell to -24C in northeastern parts of the country, nine people died in the past 24 hours, Sky News reported.</p>
<p>Monika Golebiewska, a Warsaw police officer, said, &#8220;new (fatal) cases are reported to us daily. Just today we got calls telling us about two new ones, one of someone who was living in a tent and another of someone in an abandoned train station&#8221;.</p>
<p>In Italy, authorities continued to clean up after a rare snowstorm blanketed Rome over the weekend and electrical crews struggled to restore power to some 60,000 homes in the Tuscan region.</p>
<p>The canals of Venice were reported frozen over, as were parts of the Black Sea.</p>
<p>After cancelling half its flights yesterday, operators of London&#8217;s Heathrow Airport, the world&#8217;s busiest passenger hub, said its schedule was almost back to normal.</p>
<p>In France, 39 of the country&#8217;s 101 regions were on alert for deep cold as a new record for electricity consumption was predicted.</p>
<p>In the Dalmatian region of Croatia, where more than 100 villages have been cut off by snow, Sky News reported a woman gave birth at home with the help of a neighbour while a midwife from a nearby town offered instructions over the phone.</p>
<p>&#8220;The baby girl is fine and beautiful and I&#8217;ll probably name her Snow White, given the circumstances,&#8221; Sky reported the mother said later.</p>
<div>
Read more: <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/winter-weathers-deadly-toll-across-europe/story-e6frfku0-1226264559572#ixzz1lf2OyJof">http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/winter-weathers-deadly-toll-across-europe/story-e6frfku0-1226264559572#ixzz1lf2OyJof</a></div>
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		<item>
		<title>Is hurricane season over? Probably</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/is-hurricane-season-over-probably/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/is-hurricane-season-over-probably/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2011 20:44:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Season 2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hurricane]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Season]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=131</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season over? Officially, no, as it ends on Nov. 30, in about two weeks. Unofficially, probably so, at least as far as Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, is concerned. “I did tell &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/is-hurricane-season-over-probably/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season over? Officially, no, as it ends on Nov. 30, in about two weeks.</p>
<p>Unofficially, probably so, at least as far as Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the <a id="ORGOV0000100" title="National Hurricane Center" href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/topic/disasters-accidents/meteorological-disasters/hurricanes/national-hurricane-center-ORGOV0000100.topic">National Hurricane Center</a>, is concerned.</p>
<p>“I did tell my wife, Ann, this past weekend that we are safe in raiding the hurricane supplies we have stored up,” said Feltgen, who in the past has made it a point to warn residents not to break into their supplies too early.</p>
<p><iframe style="" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=jamesproctor-20&amp;o=1&amp;p=16&amp;l=st1&amp;mode=books&amp;search=Hurricane, Weather&amp;fc1=000000&amp;lt1=_blank&amp;lc1=3366FF&amp;bg1=FFFFFF&amp;f=ifr" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" width="468" height="336"></iframe></p>
<p>Feltgen said it’s unlikely any more storms will form this year because tropical waters have cooled, cold fronts are descending across the United States regularly and there’s “wind shear all over the place.”</p>
<p>“There’s absolutely nothing going on in the tropics,” he said, adding, “I hope I am not jinxing anything, as the season does not end for two weeks yet.”</p>
<p>Among his storm supplies: canned spam &#8211; “My wife&#8217;s idea, not mine” -  tuna, fruit cups, chili, beef stew and soups; four boxes of protein bars; two boxes of crackers; two boxes of Pop Tarts; two 12-packs of soda and peanut butter and jelly.</p>
<p>Most of those supplies will be donated to charity, Feltgen said.</p>
<p>If no other storms form, the season would end with 18 named storms, including six hurricanes. That would tie 2011 with 1969 as the sixth busiest season on record.</p>
<p><iframe style="" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=jamesproctor-20&amp;o=1&amp;p=16&amp;l=st1&amp;mode=books&amp;search=Tornado, Weather&amp;fc1=000000<1=_blank&amp;lc1=3366FF&amp;bg1=FFFFFF&amp;f=ifr" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" width="468" height="336"></iframe></p>
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		<title>Gulf of Mexico &#8211; Tropical Storm &#8211; Lee &#8211; 2pm update</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-storm-lee-2pm-update/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-storm-lee-2pm-update/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 20:09:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast track]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GoM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Landfall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Severe Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm Warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wind]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=129</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As of 2pm Tropical Depression 13 had sustained winds of 40mph causing the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the Depression to Tropical Storm Lee. Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect for LA and MS Gulf Coasts. Here is what the &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-storm-lee-2pm-update/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As of 2pm Tropical Depression 13 had sustained winds of 40mph causing the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the Depression to Tropical Storm Lee. Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect for LA and MS Gulf Coasts. Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about newly upgraded Tropical Storm Lee:</p>
<pre>WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.</pre>
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		<title>Gulf of Mexico &#8211; Tropical Depression 13 &#8211; 8am update</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-8am-update/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-8am-update/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depressions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast track]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GoM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Landfall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm Warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Wave]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=124</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about Tropical Depression 13 as of 5am this morning: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-8am-update/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about Tropical Depression 13 as of 5am this morning:</p>
<pre>SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1
MPH...2 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.</pre>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="8am Forecast Track Depression 13" src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1311W5_NL_sm2+gif/083814W5_NL_sm.gif" alt="" width="500" height="400" /></p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What is a Tropical Depression?</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/what-is-a-tropical-depression/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/what-is-a-tropical-depression/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:29:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tropical Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Severe Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Wave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wind]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=122</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Q: what does it mean when the weather people say a topical depression has formed? A: A Tropical Depression is a Area of disturbed weather, with associated Low pressure center, that normally comes from the deep tropics (A lot come &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/what-is-a-tropical-depression/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Q: what does it mean when the weather people say a topical depression has formed?</p>
<p>A: A Tropical Depression is a Area of disturbed weather, with associated Low pressure center, that normally comes from the deep tropics (A lot come from Africa in the form of Tropical Waves). A depression contains a Low Level Circulation with organized Thunderstorm Activity over the Low Level Circulation.  Tropical Depressions contain warm cores which means that the center of low pressure is warmer then the surrounding Thunderstorm activity.</p>
<p>If your local Meteorologist (Weather Forecaster) says that a Tropical Depression formed then it means that an area of low pressure formed with a low level circulation and enough organized Thunderstorm activity is present to upgrade the area to a depression.</p>
<p>Q: What can I expect from a Tropical Depression?</p>
<p>A: Tropical Depression have winds under 40mph so winds aren&#8217;t a real concern with Depressions. Generally the biggest threat from a Depression is the Rainfall which can lead to flash flooding and mudslides.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atlantic &#8211; Invest94L &#8211; 60% chance of Development</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/atlantic-invest94l-60-chance-of-development/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/atlantic-invest94l-60-chance-of-development/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 07:03:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Invests]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast track]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invest94L]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=120</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As of the 2am update by the National Hurricane Center Invest94L now has a 60% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Here is what the NHC has to say about it: SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/atlantic-invest94l-60-chance-of-development/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As of the 2am update by the National Hurricane Center Invest94L now has a 60% chance of developing with in the next 48 hours. Here is what the NHC has to say about it:</p>
<pre>SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.</pre>
<p>I will have the very latest on this Invest as we get more information!</p>
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		<title>Gulf of Mexico &#8211; Tropical Depression 13 &#8211; 2am Update</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-2am-update/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-2am-update/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 05:43:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depressions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast track]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GoM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Landfall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm Warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wind]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=109</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is the 2am update and forecast track for Tropical Depression 13: 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020538 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 100 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 ...CENTER &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-2am-update/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is the 2am update and forecast track for Tropical Depression 13:</p>
<pre>000
WTNT33 KNHC 020538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN</pre>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Depression 13 Forecast Track 2am" src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1311W5_NL_sm2+gif/023812W5_NL_sm.gif" alt="" width="500" height="400" /></p>
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			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-13-2am-update/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
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		<item>
		<title>Gulf of Mexico &#8211; Tropical Depression 13 &#8211; Recon</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-14-recon/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-14-recon/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 05:11:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depressions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GoM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm Warning]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well tonight we have a Recon Mission into tropical Depression 14. Here is the first observation from them: &#160; 000 URNT15 KNHC 291405 AF306 WXWXA 110829132437306 HDOB 04 20110829 135530 3158N 08327W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 325013 014 /// &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-tropical-depression-14-recon/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well tonight we have a Recon Mission into tropical Depression 14. Here is the first observation from them:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<pre>000
URNT15 KNHC 291405
AF306 WXWXA 110829132437306    HDOB 04 20110829
135530 3158N 08327W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135600 3158N 08330W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 325012 013 /// /// 05
135630 3157N 08333W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135700 3156N 08336W 3926 07691 0374 -190 //// 326013 014 /// /// 05
135730 3155N 08339W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 327015 015 /// /// 05
135800 3155N 08342W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 323014 014 /// /// 05
135830 3154N 08345W 3926 07689 0372 -190 //// 325013 014 /// /// 05
135900 3153N 08348W 3926 07688 0373 -190 //// 323013 014 /// /// 05
135930 3152N 08351W 3926 07687 0372 -190 //// 322013 013 /// /// 05
140000 3152N 08354W 3926 07689 0373 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140030 3151N 08357W 3926 07687 0373 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140100 3150N 08400W 3926 07690 0373 -190 //// 320012 013 /// /// 05
140130 3149N 08403W 3926 07688 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
140200 3148N 08405W 3926 07692 0376 -190 //// 319014 015 /// /// 05
140230 3148N 08408W 3926 07693 0377 -190 //// 318013 013 /// /// 05
140300 3147N 08411W 3927 07692 0377 -190 //// 319013 014 /// /// 05
140330 3146N 08414W 3926 07692 0377 -190 //// 320013 013 /// /// 05
140400 3145N 08417W 3926 07689 0376 -190 //// 321012 013 /// /// 05
140430 3144N 08420W 3926 07688 0375 -190 //// 320013 014 /// /// 05
140500 3144N 08423W 3926 07689 0374 -190 //// 321013 014 /// /// 05
$$
;

I will have more as more information comes through.</pre>
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		<title>Gulf of Mexico Threat &#8211; Invest93L &#8211; August 31st 2011</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-threat-invest93l-august-31st-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-threat-invest93l-august-31st-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2011 22:54:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Invests]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[93L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GoM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf of Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threat]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather located in the southern Gulf of Mexico. If this system were to develop it would pose a threat some where along the Gulf Coast of &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/gulf-of-mexico-threat-invest93l-august-31st-2011/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather located in the southern Gulf of Mexico. If this system were to develop it would pose a threat some where along the Gulf Coast of the U.S.A or Mexico. Stay tuned for the very latest on this developing situation!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<pre>1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.</pre>
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		<item>
		<title>Katia remains a Tropical Storm&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/katia-remains-a-tropical-storm/</link>
		<comments>http://www.theweatherwatch.org/katia-remains-a-tropical-storm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2011 22:01:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Proctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Katia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecast track]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invest 92L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Storm]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=101</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As of 5pm the National Hurricane Center held Katia as a Tropical Storm. However Katia is just about a Hurricane. There is a very good chance that Katia will gain Hurricane Strength by 11pm tonight. Here is what the National &#8230; <a href="http://www.theweatherwatch.org/katia-remains-a-tropical-storm/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As of 5pm the National Hurricane Center held Katia as a Tropical Storm. However Katia is just about a Hurricane. There is a very good chance that Katia will gain Hurricane Strength by 11pm tonight.</p>
<p>Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about Katia this afternoon:</p>
<p>TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11<br />
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011<br />
500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011</p>
<p>KATIA IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STATUS. THE SYSTEM<br />
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT PROMINENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DEEP<br />
CONVECTION IS BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE CENTER. THE STORM ALSO<br />
HAS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW<br />
PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT<br />
55 KT&#8230;BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF<br />
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT<br />
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODESTLY WARM WATERS<br />
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS&#8230;SO CONTINUED<br />
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE<br />
NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR&#8230;AND INHIBIT<br />
INTENSIFICATION&#8230;LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME OF THE<br />
GLOBAL MODELS&#8230;SUCH AS THE GFS&#8230;SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW<br />
ANTICYCLONE OF KATIA WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND<br />
DISPLACE THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IF THAT<br />
OCCURS&#8230;KATIA WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 4 OR 5.<br />
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND<br />
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.</p>
<p>THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF<br />
A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE<br />
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. AS KATIA NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE<br />
ANTICYCLONE&#8230;A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING<br />
FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN<br />
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE<br />
ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF<br />
SOLUTIONS.</p>
<p>FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS</p>
<p>INIT 31/2100Z 14.6N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH<br />
12H 01/0600Z 15.1N 44.9W 65 KT 75 MPH<br />
24H 01/1800Z 15.8N 47.7W 75 KT 85 MPH<br />
36H 02/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH<br />
48H 02/1800Z 17.7N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH<br />
72H 03/1800Z 20.0N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH<br />
96H 04/1800Z 22.0N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH<br />
120H 05/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 105 KT 120 MPH</p>
<p>$$<br />
FORECASTER PASCH</p>
<p>Here is the latest Forecast Track:</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Katia Forecast Track" src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL_sm2+gif/203927W5_NL_sm.gif" alt="" width="500" height="400" /></p>
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